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Наукові конференції


Шавкат Сунакбаев (Туркестан, Казахстан)

In the conditions of occurring transformation of economy of Kazakhstan and formation of competitive system of economy there are radical transformations of its multistructure economy. Thus the significant part is assigned to social transformations - improvement of a demographic situation, steady improvement of quality and a standard of living, to gap reduction between rich and poor segments of the population, to creation of modern effective health care and education, support of multinational culture.

Key value in increase of competitiveness of national economies is gained by technological transformations - overcoming of technological degradation, development of equipment of modern fifth and perspective sixth technological ways. In Russia problems of transition to innovative type of development of economy, in Kazakhstan - to industrial innovatively, orientations to strategy of support of hi-tech productions, innovative sector and business are set.

Structural transformations in economy of Kazakhstan and Russia consist in overcoming of a hypertrophy of the power raw sector focused on export, advancing development of processing branches, increase of proportionality and balance of development of economy, providing on this basis of their steady growth on the basis of production modernization, in Kazakhstan - the accelerated modernization.

The external economic transformations are in the long term looked through in the following directions: increase of a share of finished products in structure of export and services at reduction of a share of mineral raw materials and fuel; strengthening of integration processes within the CIS and EurAsEC, association of efforts and capacities of the countries for technological break, increase of competitiveness of economy and joint performances in the world markets.

Integration into world economy is an assessment of level of competitiveness of the state, and movement on this way causes of effective economic development, definition of strategic priorities of economy.

Perspective platform of development of Kazakhstan is the strategy "Kazakhstan-2030" defining a vector and stages of social and economic transformations of the state on long-term prospect (till 2030) thanks to which quality indicators - stability of economic growth and high level of competitiveness of the country have to be reached.

On the basis of this central strategy as perspective model of development in 2003 strategy of industrial and innovative development of Kazakhstan till 2015 is defined.

Ensuring macroeconomic stability and stability is a strategic priority of policy of the state as this direction has to create the reliable base for expansion of other priority directions of industrial and innovative strategy. Macroeconomic stability of economy of Kazakhstan is characterized by level and dynamics of such indicators, as the real growth of gross domestic product, gross domestic product per capita, a rate of inflation, pure inflow of foreign investments, the loudspeaker of the international monetary reserves, level of the public external debt in relation to gross domestic product, balance of trade balance, deficiency (surplus) of the state budget, level of tax load of businessmen etc. This priority reflects quality of economic growth of the country, has the steady indicators characterizing stability and high rates of development of economy, the social sphere.

As other strategic priority rational and productive use of raw material resources as Kazakhstan has large on a global scale stocks of oil, gas, and ores of ferrous and non-ferrous metals acts. Prompt development of the mega markets of Russia and China does perspective formation of export platforms for satisfaction of demand for production with the high value added, made on the basis of profile for Kazakhstan of raw material resources.

Initiative participation of Kazakhstan in such regional integration associations as the CIS, EurAsEC, SCO, EEP, is caused by objective economic feasibility. At the same time the interstate economic relations on space of the CIS are under construction generally on a bilateral basis. Thus it is necessary to recognize that the collective resistance to risks is more effective. Therefore current negative trends in integration processes of CIS countries, in our opinion, are quite surmountable taking into account prospect as in aspect of new theoretical development of arising problems, and from a position of their practical realization.

As important priority of strategy of industrial and innovative development of Kazakhstan creation of the infrastructure attractive first of all to non-oil branches of economy acts. Existence of modern production and social infrastructure in the country - a necessary factor of the accelerated and high-quality development of economy. Thus the initial capital intensity is provided with the leading role of the state in their formation. The big territory of Kazakhstan and its geotransit character dictate dynamic development of power, transport and telecommunication complexes. In relation to model of industrial and innovative strategy of the country criterion of an optimality is functioning of model which admits to more effective of possible options of development of national economy.

Entry of Kazakhstan into number 50 of the most competitive countries of the world is chosen as a strategic priority of competitiveness and its criterion. This basic criterion reflects both quantitative and qualitative signs of competitiveness of national economy. Criteria of a priority of macroeconomic stability of the republic as it was noted, qualitative parameters and growth rates of gross domestic product are. It is expedient to estimate a priority of rational use of available raw material resources by criterion of a share of production with a high value added at gross domestic product.

In world and regional economy (on space of the CIS) value of level of total exports and import to gross domestic product (world market), export and import with CIS countries, EurAsEC, EEP to gross domestic product (the regional market) can be an indicator of deepening of integration of Kazakhstan. The priority of creation of modern infrastructure can be estimated on level of a gain of capacities: in power industry - electricity generation, on railway transport - the extent of ways and goods turnover, including transit, in the sphere of telecommunications - the capacity of networks.

The criterion of a priority of attraction of foreign and domestic investments into development of new productions can be characterized by a share of foreign and domestic investments into manufacturing industry in a total amount of investments. Priority of the modern regional service center can be estimated by criterion of a share of the services provided in the sphere of tourism, trade, finance, medicine, information scientists at gross domestic product.

At the same time radical reforms in CIS countries were followed by fast destruction of production communications, increase of power consumption of the final product. Some of former problems managed to be eliminated, including release of the outdated equipment, etc. But there were new problems though there were preconditions to effective housekeeping - production communications on the market basis, changed a procedure of deliveries and pricing system in Russia and Kazakhstan started developing.

The main danger of the present transformational period - considerable reduction of national tovaroproizvodyashchy base. Russia and Kazakhstan become a huge sales market for industrially developed powers facing overproduction. Russia has the capacious market, and it cheap and convenient for those who wants to sell the production simply. Process of advance of own production on domestic market is actually broken. The Russian analysts note that taxes aren't always paid to the state, slowly replenish pension and other social funds, social tension and economic instability amplifies. Macroeconomic indicators, apparently from data of the World bank, reflect reproduction dynamics.

For Kazakhstan and Russia the major task is elaboration of the long-term, coordinated innovative and technological and structural strategy focused on innovative break, distribution of the fifth and development of the sixth technological ways, diversification of economy and progressive structural shifts. The analysis of structural dynamics on reproduction sectors reflects a functional purpose of production of branches: consumer (goods, paid and free services for satisfaction of requirements of the population); innovative and investment (production of instruments of labor, progressive materials, construction production for innovative updating of fixed capital); power raw (production and processing of mineral and forest raw materials) and infrastructure (transport and communication, trade, financial services, management and defense).

The state investment policy has to provide not only attraction of the capital, but also its target use on strategically important innovative directions of development. For Russia, Kazakhstan and other CIS countries the effective directions of investment activity are important: investments into restructuring and modernization of production and in new productions; investments into priority scientific projects and creation of conditions for attraction further private capital. Thus, the perspective structural and innovative policy, strategic partnership of Russia and Kazakhstan reflect tendencies of dynamics of structure of economy.

Kazakhstan the first of CIS countries went on creation of the National fund, urged to stabilize a situation in the currency and financial markets and to accumulate the additional income from export of raw material resources for future development of the Kazakhstan economy. To make active investments into non-oil branches, in 2001 the Development bank of Kazakhstan for the purpose of medium-term and long-term crediting of the investment projects aimed at the development of production infrastructure and processing productions was created.

As showed the analysis, as a whole communication between the past and by the future of Kazakhstan it can be expressed as follows - effective innovative economy, democratic society, national security. Thus Kazakhstan not the first country which solved problems of a choice of industrial and innovative strategy. The countries - leaders of world technical and economic progress adhere to development model within which create the most perfect according to the production technology and effective mechanisms for ensuring growth rates of national wealth. Other model - catching-up development - is characteristic for the countries which are in subsequent "echelons" of world technical and economic progress. In Kazakhstan there was no need to repeat all these steps in the same sequence as it was done by others. In the country there are reserves on all from the called steps which on condition of the accelerated modernization can become growth points.

The state for activization of business activity since 2004 lowered tax loading, first of all, at the expense of reduction of rates of the VAT. Instead of a uniform rate of a social tax the descending scale is entered into 21% with rates from 20 to 7%, and the maximum rate of individual income tax was reduced with 30 to 10%. As a whole decrease in tax loading is estimated at 1, 1% of gross domestic product. However even taking into account reduction of taxes the plan on receipts in the state budget is formed in optimum sizes that makes 23-25% of gross domestic product.

The carried-out analysis shows that the system of measures is directed on ensuring sustained economic growth and achievement of competitiveness of national economy which are defined in the ten-year strategic plan by one of the priority. Characterizing the medium-term period, it should be noted ensuring rates of economic growth at the level of 7-8% a year. Problems of industrial and innovative strategy are directed on achievement till 2015 in manufacturing industry of average annual growth rates of 8, 4%, labor productivity increase in comparison with 2000 not less than by 3 times and decrease in power consumption of gross domestic product twice.

Increase of level of attractiveness of Kazakhstan for investments and a transfer of technologies is achievable at the expense of creation of the modern and developed scientific and innovative and production infrastructure. Realization of goals assumes productive functioning of Development bank, the Kazakhstan investment fund, Innovative fund, Corporation on export insurance, etc. These measures include formation of transit potential for ensuring efficiency of industrial and innovative development of the accelerated modernization of economy of  Kazakhstan, its transfer to long-term steady growth and dynamic development of the country.